Check out Google Wave, perhaps the biggest e-mail innovation since the 1990’s switch form Pine to desktop e-mail. See http://wave.google.com, the video is about 1hr 20min. The short story is that Google has created some really amazing innovations rendered in HTML 5.0 (which is also about to change the way you view the Web). The innovations include (a) merging chat and e-mail into a single app, (b) the ability to view e-mail as waves of collaboration that allow you to revisit, edit, append, and converse by thread, (c) highly integrated text, photos, gadgets, and feeds, and (d) if you join a wave late, you can “play” the wave sequentially to see who added content in the flow.

With over a 50% growth in new Twitter users last month, many of us find ourselves confounded by what rises to the top of the twitter ranks on a daily basis, and the fickleness with which they seem to come and go. Insight, patterns, wisdom have yet to be gleaned, but I put together a quick breakdown of the top ten twitter stories, and thought it might be worth sharing.

#Swine Flu #Swineflu Channeling my inner Kasey Kasem, coming in at number 1 (and 2)with a bullet is Swine Flu! Pursued by the media with the reckless abandon usually reserved for Brittany’s driving infractions, and warmly reminiscent of the beginning 2 minutes of every great zombie movie. Why not Pig Flu? Sounds so much less judgmental. Any favorite Troy McClure worthy media fueled panic headlines worth sharing?

# Specter, Alan Specter six term Republican senator from Pennsylvania has announced he’s changing his allegiance from Republican to Democrat. Some feel this is a political parry to better his chances for reelection, though as a known moderate, he claims he feels the Democratic party is now better aligned to his principles than the right shifting Republicans. This does mean that once Al Franken’s long contested appointment as Minesota Senator from Minnesota settles, the Dems will have a filibuster proof majority (veto proof is 2/3, but filibuster proof is a bigger carrot for the ruling party dems.)

#Chelsea. I was hoping the only begotten Clinton progeny did something to get herself in the headlines, but apparently Barcelona is playing Chelsea in Soccer. Can’t wait to bother every non-US native I know with a feigned interest in what looks to be a spectacular match!

#Barca #Barcelona. Apparently Barca is a common pet name for the Barcelona FC, who, as previously noted, are playing Chelsea in what looks to be a Spectacular match! Chelsea did come in a few ranks higher in the list, but most likely due to the fractured Barca/Barcelona denotation. Interestingly this (very(crudely)) projects a fairly even twitter distribution across both areas.

#Mexico. Cinco de Mayo, a celebration of a rich culture heritage, and the glorious victory against the French in 1862? Nope. Swine Flu. As in Mexican Swine Flu, though perhaps Mexico’s national PR agencies have been trying to drop this auspicious moniker, and are heavily behind an abbreviated “Swine Flu” or perhaps “San Fernando Valley Swine Flu”

#therescue Event to raise awareness and drive political action towards ending Ugandan war and large scale abduction of children to turn into foot soldiers. Great implementation of social media to drive this one, specifically on their ability to frame the campaign as a forward moving event. http://www.invisiblechildren.com/about/history/

#09ntc Nonprofit Technology Conference http://www.nten.org/ . April 26th-28th in San Francisco, looking at adoption of many peer communication tools.

As it turns out, according to research conducted by Chris Wilson at Slate and Prof. Lauren Ancel Meyers at the University of Texas, the “25 random things about me” trend on Facebook mirrors the “classic exponential growth of an epidemic curve.”  By way of background, many people on Facebook have been writing down 25 random things about themselves and then tagging 25 people with whom the information is shared.  As it turns out, each author is “contagious,” because among the recipients of the message, a predictable number of them produce a list of their own, and in turn, tag another 25 people.  The pattern of growth across the system follows a classic viral marketing curve that Prof. Meyers says replicates an epidemiological system exactly.   Here is the original article.

It would be interesting to study further the pattern of growth within viral marketing systems and the factors that contribute to the speed of that growth and decline.  For example, if we were tagging only 10 people, not 25, would the “virus” spread more slowly, but nevertheless, reach the same level of adoption within the system, just at a slower pace?  For example, once the trend has run its course, if 18% of Facebook users ultimately create a “25 random things” page, would that number remain the same if we tagged 10, not 25 people (tagging 10 people takes less effort)?  Alternatively, would more (or less) people participate if you only had to tag 10 friends instead of 25?  In the world of social computing, there are many potential levers to create viral growth, and we’re just beginning to understand what works best and how to optimize the effects.

Having been a Web consultant since 1995, I have learned a thing or two about bubbles.  As the dotcom era of the 1990s transitioned from irrational exuberance to disillusionment, the most important common denominator was the irrationality of both extremes. In recent years, Web 2.0 and social computing have driven a wave of investment with some people now concerned about another bubble.

The problem with the bubble metaphor in technology is that it implies an ephemeral, fragile, and rapidly rising trend which… pops.   The truth about the past dotcom bubble is that now, 8-years after the “pop” none of us could imagine running a modern corporation without e-mail and a browser on our desktop, to say nothing of E-Commerce, VOIP, chat, etc.

The term bubble is an oversimplification of a short-term speculative boom & bust, and most importantly, it is misleads investors, enterpreneurs and the public from a sustained and rational confidence in an underlying trend of lasting innovation.  This is not to say that there aren’t winners, losers, and lessons to be learned in the advent of any new technology, but social computing is here to stay.  We’re in the midst of a revolution in collective intelligence, with thriving and vibrant online communities breaking down boundaries between public and private life.  This is changing the way we work, play, and collaborate forever.  We’re really at the beginning of a new era in social computing, and a there is nothing temporary about it.